Five markets. Three sectors. Nine moving parts.

Most market commentary covers everything and commits to nothing. We cover a deliberately small board, split each sector into the three groups inside it that move for different reasons, and put a number on what we think happens next.

Get the free Morning brief Jump to the sectors

How we work

Four steps, in this order, every brief.

  1. Step 1

    Observe

    Take the readings before forming a view. Same instruments, same times, every day, so the record is comparable rather than curated.

  2. Step 2

    Connect

    Put the reading next to the thing that would explain it. A sector move is only interesting once you know which part of the sector moved.

  3. Step 3

    Question

    Turn the view into something that can be wrong. A named level, a named time, and an answer that arrives whether or not it flatters us.

  4. Step 4

    Monitor

    Come back to the question in the next brief, in the same words it was asked. One that cannot be settled honestly is marked not assessable rather than dropped.

The board

Five core markets set the context. Three sectors get the detail. Nothing else appears in a brief, because a wider board would mean less to say about each thing on it.

Core markets

  • SPYS&P 500
  • QQQNasdaq 100
  • IWMRussell 2000
  • GLDGold
  • TLTLong bonds

Three sectors, three parts each

A sector number hides more than it shows. These are the splits we track underneath it.

Technology

XLK

One index, three different businesses.

  • SoftwareRecurring revenue, priced off the long end.
  • SemiconductorsThe cycle running underneath the narrative.
  • AI and LLMsCapital spent now against revenue disclosed later.
Open Technology →

Health Care

XLV

Where the market hides, and why that matters.

  • Pharma and biotechPipelines, patents and binary readouts.
  • Managed care and payersUtilisation, and the politics around it.
  • Devices and life-science toolsProcedure volumes and other people’s capex.
Open Health Care →

Energy

XLE

The sector that reprices first.

  • Integrated majorsBreakevens, buybacks and the refining spread.
  • Exploration and productionUpstream, and the shortest cycle in the sector.
  • Services and midstreamPaid on activity, not on price.
Open Energy →

What this research is not

  • Not price targets. We publish a level and a time, which is a question, not a forecast of where something ends up.
  • Not recommendations. Nothing here tells anyone to buy, sell, or hold, and nothing is tailored to any reader.
  • Not stock picking. We work at the sector and subsector level, because that is where the read is.
  • Not a performance record. We do not publish returns, and a question resolving yes is not a profit.

See it in a brief

This page describes how we work. The sector research itself, and the deep-dives that come with it, are part of Pro. The Morning brief is free with an account and carries a read on all three sectors.

Create free account Learn to read it yourself